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Entrepreneurship is the least preferable option for American Millennials

4/20/2019

 
Millennials make up nearly a quarter of the total U.S. population, 30 percent of the voting age population, and almost two-fifths of the working age population. ​

This generation is set to serve as a social, economic, and political bridge to chronologically successive (and increasingly) racially diverse generations. 
W
hile both the post-millennial and pre-millennial populations were majority white in 2015 (51.5 percent and 68.4 percent, respectively), both population groups are projected to substantially decrease their shares of white population by 2035, to 46 percent and 64.8 percent, respectively. Yet, even in 2035, the millennial generation will represent a bridge to the more racially diverse young adult population

More than a third of all millennials ages 25-34 achieved college educations by 2015, up from less than 30 percent for comparably aged young adults in 2000 and not quite a quarter for those in 1980.

The housing bust and the Great Recession have affected millennials’ short-term, and potentially long-term, ability to buy homes. Nationally, homeownership rates have not shown long-term declines.
This delay in homeownership may be robbing millennials of a head start toward a traditional means of wealth accumulation. 
A 2016 GenForward Survey of millennials of different racial-ethnic groups found that blacks and Hispanics, in particular, consistently report more economic vulnerability than whites or Asians
Millennials were more likely to be in poverty than most baby boomers and Gen Xers at similar ages.
Millennials are slower than earlier generations to get married, have children, and leave their parents’ homes. The median age of marriage was lowest during the 1950s—at age 20 for women and 22 for men. By 2015, these rose to ages 27 and 29, respectively.

Racial and ethnic minorities make up more than half of the millennial population in 10 states, including California, Texas, Arizona, Florida, and New Jersey. In another 10 states, including New York, Illinois, and North and South Carolina, minorities comprise more than 40 percent of millennial residents.
Amidst signs that the employment situation is improving, and indications that housing affordability is reviving, a majority of millennials say that they want to get married, have children, and purchase a home. However, the capacity for taking risk with their vocations is reducing. 

Research suggests entrepreneurial activity has declined among Millennials. The share of people under 30 who own a business has fallen to almost a quarter-century low, according to a 2015 Wall Street Journal analysis of Federal Reserve data. 
The romantic view of entrepreneurship involves angel investors and venture capital funds, but in fact, the ordinary entrepreneur is more likely to fund a start-up using personal savings—something underemployed Millennials simply could not build as they entered the workforce during or in the immediate wake of the Great Recession. Funding from friends and family is the next most common source, but this personal network could not help much during the most recent economic downturn, when so much home equity was underwater. Student debt worsened the underlying economic problems.

According to 
a report by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, between 2004 and 2014, the number of student borrowers rose by 89 percent.
AN EY STUDY FOUND THAT

Millennials invested in human capital and are willing to work hard to get ahead
  • 88 percent of Millennials recognize that hard work is an important factor to get ahead in life.
  • 64 percent would move to a different part of the country for a better job or access to better opportunities.
  • 63 percent would add an hour to their commute for a better job.
Coming of age during a historic economic downturn has severely impacted Millennial life
  • 30 percent of respondents live with their parents, which rises to 40 percent for single respondents.
  • Nearly one­-third believe their local community is still in a recession.
Stress levels run high for Millennials
  • 78 percent of Millennials are worried about having good-­paying job opportunities.
  • 74 percent are worried they won’t be able to pay their healthcare bills if they get sick.
  • 79 percent are worried they will not have enough money to live on when they retire.
  • Only 6 percent of Millennials feel they are making a lot more than required to cover basic needs. For Millennial women, the figure is only 3 percent.
  • 63 percent would have difficulty covering an unexpected $500 expense.
  • 44 percent would dedicate $5,000 in lottery winnings to paying off bills and loans, signaling a struggle to launch, save, and invest.

Few Millennials may be starting businesses of their own, but the generation deeply admires entrepreneurs
  • Millennials overwhelmingly (78 percent) consider entrepreneurs successful
  • 62 percent of Millennials have considered starting their own business.
  • 55 percent believe their generation is more entrepreneurial than past ones, even if the data say otherwise.
The biggest obstacle keeping Millennials from starting their own business is money
  • 42 percent of Millennials lament that they don’t have the financial means to start a business.
  • Across demographics, white men are least concerned with finance, with only 40 percent citing it as the biggest obstacle compared to 53 percent for black women and 59 percent for Hispanic women.
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Millennials are risk­-averse and even conservative in their career choices. They intuitively know that risk­-taking and a willingness to fail are important for advancing in life, but Millennials view sticking with one company a safer bet to salary growth than switching jobs (in reality the opposite is true) or starting a business. Millennial black women are the only demographic to buck the trend and see entrepreneurship as the surest path to prosperity, even though women and minorities face far bigger challenges than white men in getting the capital they need to get these businesses off of the ground.

Millennials prefer the risk-­averse path
  • 71 percent of Millennials recognize that taking risks and being willing to fail are important to getting ahead in life.
  • Nevertheless, a large plurality (44 percent) of Millennials still believe the best way to advance their career is to climb the corporate ladder.
  • Even though 62 percent of Millennials have considered starting a business and 51 percent know someone who started or worked for a startup, only 22 percent believe entrepreneurship is the best way to advance their career.
Black women: The true face of Millennial entrepreneurship?
  • Black women are the only Millennial demographic in which a plurality (39 percent) believe that starting their own business is best way to get ahead.
  • 71 percent of black women have considered starting their own business, making them the most entrepreneurially-­inclined of the millennial cohort. Their inclination to chart an independent path may stem from their lack of confidence in established institutions, too.

Credits:
Brookings Institute, EIG.EY, GENFORWARD SURVEY, Thomas Shapiro, Tatjana Meschede, and Sam Osoro, “The Roots of the Widening Racial Wealth Gap: Explaining the Black-White Economic Divide,” Research and Policy Brief, Institute on Assets and Social Policy, Brandeis University, February 2013, Cathy J. Cohen, Matthew D. Luttig, and Jon C. Rogowski, The Economic Lives of Millennials: GenForward June 2017 Report, ​


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It was a blip but David Malpass has taken over the World Bank

4/10/2019

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David Malpass is the new boss at the World Bank. A total non believer in the mission and vision of what the Institution stands for; now heads it. 
For one, the mission of the World Bank is to offer loans and advice to the developing countries; created around the same time as a the IMF, in 1944 , to help fight poverty and equality. Whereas IMF was supposed to help fight acute crises; the World Bank looked at long term problems and how to correct those. 
The World Bank gave its first loan to France, after the first World War, then Chile. Today the Bank has within itself 5 Organizations ;an agency that guarantees loans, a centre that settles investment disputes, a “corporation” that invests in private firms and promotes entrepreneurship, and the two biggest units which together constitute the World Bank proper: the International Development Association (IDA) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD).
IDA collects donations every two years from rich nations and distributes it to the poor ones.  Countries disqualify for IDA donations once they reach a GDP of $1.145 per person.  The IBRD is the more complicated story. It is backed by all the Governments of the World and can borrow at a very low rate of interest to lend to middle-income countries along with policy advice. 
Malpass is of the opinion that the Bank should clearly focus more on economic growth and less lending. This is going to lead to interesting times for the Bank. 

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Why are Countries with younger populations more entrepreneurial ?

4/1/2019

 
According to recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the median age of the U.S. labor force was 42 years in 2016, up from 38 in 1996, and it’s projected to keep climbing. This is an alarming trend for the United States as our population is ageing.
As per the Journal of Political Economy, Entrepreneurship requires energy and creativity as well as business acumen. Some factors that contribute to entrepreneurship decline with age, but business skills increase with experience in high-level positions. Having too many older workers in society slows entrepreneurship. When older workers occupy key positions, they block younger workers from acquiring skills. A theory is formulated and tested using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor data. A one standard deviation decrease in a country’s median age increases new business formation by 2.5 percentage points, which is about 40 percent of the mean rate. Furthermore, older societies have lower rates of entrepreneurship at every age

So is the answer for constant innovation, younger societies?

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To measure entrepreneurship, if we were to look at two data points
a. Entrepreneurship enablement within countries
b. Median Age of entrepreneurs in these countries
We invariably assume that younger people are more willing to take risks, are more open to different busienss models and also more unincumbered. 
The other important factor is gaining business acumen. Professional experience can only be gained through being in decision making positions. In countries with younger population, more young people in the workforce, leads to more younger people in decision making positions faster. 
A case in point stated in the study is Brazil and Japan, both large economies. Brazil is one of the youngest of the large economies, with a median age of 26. Japan’s median age is 44. The rate of entrepreneurship in Brazil is over five times that of Japan.
So in Japan, at 30 you have invariably just started your career ; however; in Brazil, at 30 you have probably been in a decision making position for a longer time already. 
The younger you are when you acquire your skills, the more likely you will use them extensively and the more time you will have to build upon those skills.
That’s why Silicon Valley had so much business formation. It has all these young people who acquired these tremendous skills quickly, then they left wherever they were, went out, and started businesses of their own
Diversity of immigration from countries where there are more younger people ( like India) , is visible in the number of companies started and the rate of success of these immigrants. 
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